Mississippi hasn’t had competitive U.S. House races since 2010; 2026 looks unlikely to change that

Republicans have held three of Mississippi’s four U.S. House seats since the 2010 elections, election returns show, and longtime partisan leanings suggest the 2026 races are unlikely to produce major change.

Democrats briefly held three of the four seats from 2008 to 2010. In the 2010 general election, Republican Steven Palazzo defeated Gene Taylor 52% to 47%, and Republican Alan Nunnelee defeated Travis Childers 55% to 41%, according to state election returns.

Since those defeats, no Democratic candidate in any of the three majority-white districts has reached 35% of the vote, election returns show. Mississippi’s only majority-Black district, represented by Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, has remained solidly Democratic, and all four incumbents face opposition this November.

The Cook Political Report has long rated all four Mississippi districts as heavily tilted toward one party, reflecting partisan voting patterns in the state. Lawmakers who drew the current lines after the 2020 census rejected an offer from Rep. Thompson to alter his district to make it more compact and potentially less partisan, legislative records and news accounts show.

This year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling on race and redistricting has prompted discussion in Mississippi about new maps. Republican Gov. Tate Reeves and others have cited the decision as an opportunity to redraw districts, and the Legislature has signaled it may pursue changes that would take effect for the 2028 elections, officials and public statements show.

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