Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney from Lowndes County, has a small but mathematically plausible chance of defeating Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in November, according to political analysts. While the odds are considered long, recent election patterns suggest a potential path to victory.
Hyde-Smith was appointed to the Senate in 2018 after Thad Cochran stepped down. She is seeking her third term this fall. Historically, Mississippi leans heavily Republican, with the last Democrat elected to the Senate in 1982 and the last Democratic governor elected in 1999. No incumbent senator from Mississippi has been defeated since 1942, further highlighting the uphill battle for Colom.
Despite these trends, analysts point to recent election turnout figures as a possible indicator. In the 2023 gubernatorial race, about 821,000 voters participated, with Republican Tate Reeves narrowly defeating Democrat Brandon Presley by roughly 26,600 votes. If turnout in this year’s midterm election matches that of 2023, Colom could potentially gather enough votes to close the gap, assuming he can attract votes from Democratic-leaning voters and capitalize on favorable turnout patterns.
National polls indicate that Democratic enthusiasm is higher than Republican enthusiasm in Mississippi, with President Donald Trump notably less popular in the state. If Colom can mobilize voters in larger counties such as Hinds, Rankin, Harrison, Madison and DeSoto, he could secure enough votes to make the race competitive, analysts said. Still, whether he can convince voters who supported Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 to turn out for him remains uncertain.
While the race faces significant hurdles due to Mississippi’s political landscape, analysts acknowledge that, mathematically, a Colom victory is not entirely out of the question if turnout aligns with recent patterns and he can make inroads among key voter groups.
Jon Ross Myers is the executive editor and publisher of the Mississippi News Network, Mississippi's largest digital only media company. He can be reached at editor@tippahnews.com
