Trackable floating oil inventory outside a U.S. naval blockade has fallen to zero, and energy intelligence firm Kpler projects Iran’s seaborne crude revenues could dry up by mid-December, Fox News Digital reported Oct. 25, 2026.
Fox News cited Kpler’s data and interviews with analysts saying the December date reflects when outstanding payments for recent deliveries are expected to be settled rather than an instantaneous collapse of state finances. Buyers of Iranian crude typically settle payments one to two months after delivery, creating a lag between the disappearance of floating stocks and revenue shortfalls.
Analysts quoted by Fox News — including Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, and Miad Maleki, an Iran sanctions and financial expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies — said the loss of seaborne income would create a cash-flow disruption with uneven effects on Iranian budgets.
Brew told Fox News that oil directly accounts for roughly 30% of Iran’s government budget. Maleki estimated that oil and refined petroleum products account for between 50% and 60% of total regime revenue when indirect income is included. Iran entered the year expecting about 1.7 million barrels per day in exports at roughly $54 per barrel, Brew said, though actual exports have been lower.
The Treasury Department said last year Tehran allocated roughly 200,000 barrels per day to its armed forces, with planned allocations expected to exceed $10 billion annually; those allocations and off-budget revenues have helped finance equipment and support for Iran-backed groups, Fox News reported, citing Maleki and other sources.
Fox News reported that Iran held about 135 million barrels in floating storage before the war began in February; that offshore inventory has now been exhausted. U.S. Central Command estimates the blockade has denied Tehran at least $25 billion in oil revenue.
Both Brew and Maleki told Fox News the Iranian government could shield military spending while cutting civilian programs, allowing inflation and a weaker rial to erode purchasing power for ordinary Iranians. They also noted that smaller quantities of oil and refined products can still move by overland routes, rail, trucks and across the Caspian Sea, so exports are unlikely to fall completely to zero.
Fox News quoted Brew saying the larger fiscal test may arrive in March, when Iran begins its new fiscal year and must reconcile spending plans with sharply lower seaborne oil income.
Jon Ross Myers is the executive editor and publisher of the Mississippi News Network, Mississippi's largest digital only media company. He can be reached at editor@tippahnews.com
