Fox News moves Kansas to Toss-up, Nebraska to Lean R in Senate Power Rankings

On Nov. 1, 2026, Fox News moved Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up in its Senate Power Rankings, saying Republicans can no longer be confident Sen. Roger Marshall holds an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.

Fox News published the change in an updated Power Rankings post on Nov. 1, 2026. The outlet also moved Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R, saying the odds still favour Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts but that a larger-than-expected swing could open the door for independent Dan Osborn.

The update lists five states that shifted this week: Ohio moved from Toss-up to Lean D; South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up; Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up; Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R; and Mississippi from Solid R to Likely R, the post states. Fox named Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted in Ohio, Sen. Pete Ricketts and Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom in Mississippi.

Fox’s forecast calls control of the Senate a toss-up. The outlet says Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 45; on a strong night for Democrats the party could reach about 55 seats, while Republicans could hold as many as 52 on a good night for them, according to the Power Rankings.

The Power Rankings post also noted higher-than-expected undecided shares in some battlegrounds — an average of about 10% undecided in recent polling in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas — and said those undecided voters could be decisive.

This article summarizes Fox News’ updated Power Rankings; Tippah News did not independently verify the forecast.

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