Tippah County fire danger stays elevated through at least Tuesday as very dry air settles over north Mississippi, but forecasters say the first real rain chances in weeks could arrive by the end of the week. In its Monday morning forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in Memphis warned that low humidity will lead to elevated fire danger Monday afternoon and urged residents to obey all local burn bans.
The dry stretch comes as drought keeps tightening its grip on Tippah and Benton counties. Both counties are already under burn bans, and the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows severe drought spreading across much of the area.
Why Tippah County Fire Danger Is Elevated This Week
The weather service said a very dry air mass is in place across the Mid-South, with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Afternoon relative humidity is expected to fall well below 30 percent on Monday. Forecasters gave parts of northern Mississippi a 40 to 50 percent chance of seeing humidity drop below 20 percent, a level much of the region reached on Sunday.
The same pattern is likely to repeat Tuesday. The weather service also said 10-hour fuels, meaning small dead twigs, grass and leaves, will dry to near 10 percent moisture Monday and Tuesday. Material that dry can catch fire quickly and spread, even when winds are light. Forecasters said wetting rains are not expected until late this week.
Ripley Forecast: Dry Now, Showers by the Weekend
The weather service’s point forecast for Ripley calls for sunny, warming days before moisture returns:
Monday: Sunny, high near 82. Clear tonight with a low around 55.
Tuesday: Sunny, high near 85.
Wednesday: Sunny, high near 88.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, high near 89. A 40 percent chance of showers after 7 p.m.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers, high near 84.
Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, high near 80.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, 60 percent chance, high near 79.
Forecasters said the remnants of Hurricane Polo will merge with an upper-level trough moving across the southern Rockies midweek. That will turn winds to the south and bring more humidity into the Mid-South. Weather service guidance gives the region roughly a 40 to 50 percent chance of picking up more than a quarter inch of rain in a 12-hour period on both Saturday and Sunday. Forecasters cautioned that computer models still disagree on the details, so rain totals and timing could change during the week.
Drought Worsens in Tippah and Benton Counties
The U.S. Drought Monitor map released last week (valid Sept. 22) showed a sharp jump in drought severity across the area:
Tippah County: 100 percent of the county is in at least moderate drought, and about 45 percent is now in severe drought. A week earlier, none of the county was rated severe.
Benton County: 100 percent is in at least moderate drought, and about 15 percent is in severe drought, up from none the week before.
Tippah County’s burn ban took effect Sept. 18 and is set to run through Oct. 18. Benton County’s ban took effect Sept. 8 and is set to run through Oct. 8. Either ban can be extended if conditions don’t improve. Gas and charcoal grills are still allowed, but campfires, burn barrels, and brush or debris burning are not.
How to Help Prevent Wildfires
Don’t burn leaves, brush or trash while the burn bans are in place.
Don’t throw cigarettes out of vehicles, and secure trailer safety chains so they don’t drag and throw sparks.
Don’t park or idle vehicles on tall, dry grass.
Hunters heading out for Thursday’s Mississippi archery deer season opener should skip campfires.
Call 911 right away to report any wildfire.
Shoppers and vendors planning for this weekend’s Ripley First Monday Trade Day should keep an eye on the forecast, since the best rain chances line up with Saturday and Sunday. For more, see our coverage of the Tippah and Benton burn bans and the Ripley First Monday October market.
Jon Ross Myers is the executive editor and publisher of the Mississippi News Network, Mississippi's largest digital only media company. He can be reached at editor@tippahnews.com
