Gulf of Mexico’s summer dead zone expected to be larger than average, NOAA says

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a dead zone, or hypoxic area, roughly the size of New Jersey to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this summer, NOAA said. The zone is projected to cover more than 7,000 square miles, smaller than the 8,800-square-mile record set in 2017 but larger than the four-decade average of just over 5,200 square miles.

Doug Daigle, a research associate at Louisiana State University and coordinator of the Louisiana Hypoxia Working Group, noted that the trend has been one of growth since measurements began. He emphasized the importance of focusing on reducing the size of the dead zone over time rather than any single year’s measurement.

The EPA’s Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force aims to cut the zone to 1,900 square miles by 2035. The dead zone results from excess nutrients, primarily nitrates and phosphorus, from agriculture and urban runoff that cause algae blooms. When algae die and decompose, oxygen levels plummet, harming fish, shellfish, coral, and aquatic plants. The decline impacts both the environment and local economies, including fishing and tourism.

NOAA’s forecast for 2026 indicates nutrient pollution will create a dead zone larger than 7,000 square miles in the Gulf. Daigle said weather conditions, such as droughts or floods, can influence annual measurements. Rain or flooding upstream often increases nutrient runoff, while dry periods may temporarily reduce it.

Despite challenges, progress is being made. Mike Naig, Iowa’s secretary of agriculture and co-chair of the hypoxia task force, announced in June that the group had achieved a 20% reduction in pollution from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, partly due to state-level conservation efforts. However, Daigle expressed concern that insufficient resources have hampered efforts to reverse the trend. A coalition of organizations has called on Congress to increase funding for hypoxia programs, which previously received authorization through 2026. Advocates worry that without sustained support, reaching the 2035 goal may remain out of reach.

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